PAKISTAN in the NEW GREAT GAME - Part ||
Updated: Aug 2
5th of March, NOT 8th Feb
is Determinant of Pakistan’s Future
The Buffer State 1.0
In the last Great Game between the Russian and the British Empires, the lands now comprising Pakistan were kept underdeveloped but deliberately militarized, particularly the Frontier Province and the Potohar Districts of Punjab. This region was referred to as “cannon fodder” districts due to their supply of manpower for wars in imposing the buffer zone protecting the resource-rich “Golden Sparrow” of British India from Czarist Russia.
This continued in the Great Game between U.S.A and U.S.S.R, when Pakistan served as hinterland and largest supplier of Mujahideen in the Afghan Jihad. In return Pakistan received military aid from F-16s to Cobra Apache helicopters that built up Pakistan’s military. And non-military aid directly benefitted the Frontier province during the Afghan Jihad.
Buffer State2.0 in New Great Game
In New Great Game between USA and Rising China, Pakistan is again a Buffer Zone between US-influenced large market of India and the antagonists China. Pakistan is critical because India can serve as an alternative to China for manufacturing semi-conductors and precision engineering on which U.S.A dominance of high tech industry and advanced warfare depends.
A China-leaning Pakistan will keep Indian attention divided from China, due to perceived threat to Kashmir and the Indian border. Therefore, Pakistan’s neutrality at a minimum, or most likely alliance with U.S.A, and ideally subservience to India is important for U.S.A’s China containment strategy in the Indian and Pacific ocean.
Once again, Pakistan is a buffer state with vested interest of global powers. Pakistan’s shift from Indo-Pak to Af-Pak reflects this role in the Great Game.
Strong National Security State Serves Interest of Great Powers
Similarly, a national security state or weak democracy as a hybrid regime serves the interest of global empires in a Great Game, as it is straight-forward to deal with a powerful establishment than a democratic government influenced by public opinion, Democracy in Pakistan can be un-manageable and produce un-intended results, like the failed vote in Turkish parliament to open a northern passage to Iraq for the U.S army.
This unenviable position is our own doing, as we have a weak economy dependent on dollar flows from bilateral or multi-lateral aid and never developed as a potential business market for foreign powers. So, our utility is limited to defense or national security arena.
Therefore, geographically stuck between great powers with a weak economy means that events or players within Pakistan have little influence in determining our future. To know our future, look towards U.S.A, China and perhaps India, as the U.S.A proxy in the region.
Given our internal weakness, our best hope also lies outside with U.S.A or China. As I stated to U.S State Department Senior Advisor “Pakistani People won’t mind becoming a satellite state as long as U.S.A benevolently makes us into a West Germany, but people fear that the U.S might make us into another Afghanistan”.
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Practicing realism, Pakistani establishment cannot be natural and long term allies of PML.N. Because former Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif dismissed one COAS, almost dismissed another COAS and clashed with two COAS. Yet PML.N was facilitated and given a majority in 2013 elections and contrary to perception of establishments support to Imran Khan’s PTI, it only captured 10% of the parliamentary seats.
The pendulum swung in 2021 and conditions became favorable for PML.N and PPP once more and they formed the federal government through dislodging Imran Khan government.
What was the anomaly between 2016 and 2021 that former PM Nawaz Sharif was ousted? Why did conditions become bad for PML.N or PPP in this period?
Enter TRUMP
TRUMP is anti-establishment who disrupted long standing US establishment positions
US commitment For United Europe to counter Russia >> Brexit happens under Trump
US commitment to presence in Afghanistan to counter China/Russia >> US Afghan withdrawal becomes irreversible under Trump
US isolation of North Korea >> Reproachment with N. Korea under Trump
Without Trump Administration (2016-2021), Nawaz Sharif would never be ousted. How?
Trump got the western establishment to withdraw support from PML.N or exercise neutrality in Pakistan, which created space for our local establishment to act in line with their institutional preferences. PMLN was ousted and PTI was ushered in.
This changed when the traditional western establishment was back in power with Biden.
Of course, Imran Khan’s explosive comment “breaking shackles of slavery” at time of Taliban takeover of Afghanistan did not help, but the die was cast in favor of PML.N or PPP with the return of the traditional Democratic establishment.
Sequel - Back to TRUMP
Fast Forward Nov 2024, Trump is most likely a winner in U.S presidential elections and the international establishment’s support for PPP or PML.N will be withdrawn. Once this patronage is taken away, our local establishment will be free to exercise it’s will in our domestic political arena.
On 5th of March, Trump became designated Republican candidate and a near-certain U.S President. So, 5th March is the most formative date in determining Pakistan’s future direction.
In Game Theory, an optimum strategy is “Think Forward - Reason Backwards” which translates into….Think forward into western establishment’s Pakistan’s policy after Nov’ 24 elections and take steps NOW to get desired outcomes in the post November scenario.
For our political players and establishment, the time to tune their strategy and actions is Now. Come November, with an unhinged Trump it will be too late to re-align with the new reality.
Pakistan is at confluence of events that cannot be controlled from within Pakistan. The first phase of this battle for Pakistan will be fought in U.S.A, just as it was fought in U.K prior to 1947. Our political protagonists must have their best people in place in the U.S.A to either stall or expedite the change of conditions in Pakistan with a Trump White House.
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