PAKISTAN in the NEW GREAT GAME - Part I

The REBELLION of Cannon Fodder Districts of 

Frontier & Potohar (F&P)

Summary & Conclusions

1st Punjab Regiment was raised in 1759. Since then, the people of Frontier Province & Potohar (F&P) Districts of Punjab are staunch allies of the Western or Angle-Saxon establishment, providing manpower in wars for their western allies. This was a pact to be Front-line State against Czars or later U.S.S.R in return for western support and prosperity.

The prosperity flowed to people through benefits or privileges of the Indian National Army, and the successor Pakistan Army (widely referred to as “The Establishment”).Therefore, people of the F&P Districts vote in line with Pakistan’s Establishment preferences due to this 200 year old pact.

The pact ended in the War on Terror when F&P Districts became targets of western bombs.

Drones reduced dependence on manpower for wars, while reduction in military aid or benefits, and an increase in remittances from workers going overseas reduced financial reliance on western allies.8th February elections with a resounding victory for anti-Establishment former Prime Minister Imran Khan cemented break in the pact. The elections are given an Imran Khan centric explanation, but that is incorrect and incomplete.

There are anthropological, demographic or  economic factors underpinning election results. These are explored here, and the conclusions are

1) The pact between Anglo-Saxon powers and Pakistan has run its course on both sides

• F&P Districts do not want to be “cannon fodder” in west’s wars. Benefits from war are not enough for a  younger demographic. They want peace or prosperity that China is promising.

• Technology has reduced need for manpower in war, that was provided by F&P Districts.

2) U.S feels threat from China, and so Pakistan’s shift towards China’s is unacceptable in a key buffer state between US-backed India and China; a replay of UK-Russia Great Game.

• Pakistan’s shift to China is likely to get same U.S. response as the last cold war when it supported military takeover in Indonesia, Chile etc. to block leftist forming governments.

• A military takeover in Pakistan is a higher probability event than most analysts predict, if a political movement brings in a pro-China government.

• Support for democracy or election transparency is de-prioritized, versus requirement of a U.S.A aligned government in Pakistan. Expect limited criticism or action on Election 2024 irregularities from the Western establishment, unless current regime shifts towards China.

3) For U.S.A to gain support in F&P Districts, it needs to shift its perception from Partner for War to a Partner for Peace and Prosperity. The Belt-and-Road has cultivated a benign and benevolent image of China versus U.S.A.

4) Pakistan must evolve from being a market for war manpower to a supplier of global tech, healthcare or engineering talent, and become a consumer market for global companies. If Pakistan has limited value as a market for business, then it becomes a market for war5) Source of power in a state is not the gun, but the people. Pakistani or western establishments are powerful in Pakistan because of their historical support of population in the F&P districts: People split from the war alliance towards a peace and prosperity alliance, hence F&P Districts overwhelmingly voted for Imran Khan’s slogan of “Absolutely Not” to military bases to support more wars

• Pakistani Establishment has to offer an alternative path to prosperity to the people. This can be the China route or the U.S.A/ I.M.F route

• China has shown a path to prosperity through industrial cooperation and integrating into its supply chain. U.S.A is relying on Pakistan’s dependence on I.M.F. Can U.S.A change its course and rejuvenate a win-win alliance with the people of F&P Districts?

A Pact for War

For 200 years, the People of Frontier & Potohar (F&P) Districts of Pakistan, comprising the Peshawar Valley and Hazara districts of the Frontier Province and northern districts of Punjab, have been the staunchest allies of the Anglo-Saxon or western establishment.

Potohar Districts first contribution to the British Army was 1759 when predecessor of the 1st Punjab Regiment was created. In Frontier, the 40th Pathan was raised in 1858. Since then, the F&P Districts sent their sons to fight for the Anglo-Saxon establishment in every significant war, from the Anglo-Afghan Wars to World War 1 or II. Their manpower was instrumental in the western nations winning against Czarist Russia, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan and the U.S.S.R. 

F&P Districts loyalty and reliability to the Anglo-Saxon establishment is un-matched. 320,000 of their sons fought in World War I, half died or injured with little reward, and yet their loyalty to the western establishment was un-wavering. This continued in the post-colonial period till the Afghan Jihad, when the F&P Districts provided the bulk of the fighting force and hinterland of the Mujahideen that defeated the U.S.S.R

This was a deliberate #Pact of strategic convenience and benefit for both sides.

• During the British rule, the area now comprising Pakistan, was kept under-developed and militarized compared to industrialized eastern and southern India, so it acts as a buffer state against Czarist Russia. These areas provided manpower for war, and hence the colonial British term “cannon fodder districts”. 

• The taxonomy of Af-Pak is a continuation of the same role of buffer state in the New Great Game, first between U.S.A and Russia and now between U.S.A and China.

In return;

• Pakistan received western political and diplomatic support and title of “Front-line State in the Cold War” or Major Non-NATO ally reflecting its use or value to the western establishment

• The flow of military aid from F-16s to Cobra Apache helicopters built up Pakistan’s military and the non-military aid trickled to the F&P Districts, benefiting the population at large. The aid during the Afghan Jihad greatly benefitted the Frontier province

• Support of U.S.A, U.K for Pakistan in multi-lateral donors like World Bank, I.M.F etc.

War on Terror Creates the Schism

The staunch F&P allies of western establishment came under attack from Western drones and extraordinary rendition in the War on Terror (WOT). Each village in Frontier suffered with lives lost or young men imprisoned. It sapped the allegiance of the Frontier Pathans with the Anglo-Saxon establishment.

The fallout of Pakistan joining the WOT extended the to the Potohar Districts, with frequent terrorist attacks on Pakistan military personnel and their families, for example the Parade Lane Mosque or Cobb Line attacks. Violence was brought to the homes of soldiers and their families, who had served the western establishment for two hundred years. From exporting war manpower to distant war fields, the F&P Districts themselves became a theatre of war.

Seeds of discontent were sown, and a schism opened up creating a divergence between the Anglo-Saxon establishment and their once allied people of F&P districts.

Military Pensions, Benefits & Aid Falls Short

Economic stagnation and high inflation over the last three decades hit the F&P Districts hard as military pensions or benefits (primary source of sustenance for the F&P districts) were insufficient to meet the aspirations of people. F&P families left for work abroad and the use of social media expanded awareness beyond military careers. The surge in remittances from workers going abroad augmented their lifestyle reducing historical dependence on military patronage. 

Military aid cuts by U.S.A and U.K. reduced the patron-beneficiary link between the F&P Districts and the western establishment because need for manpower in warfare was replaced by drones and technology. The payoff from alliance or allegiance for war or national security decreased.

Demands of “do-more” and punitive military responses by U.S.A in WOT alienated the greatest historical ally of the Anglo-Saxon establishment.

At the same time, social and demographic changes created a receptive audience for Imran Khan’s message of #AbsolutelyNot for Pakistan becoming part of another war. The slogan “We are not slaves or cannon-fodder for foreign powers” resonated in a population worn by two decades of WOT and worsening economics. This was the first time in two hundred years when the public opinion of the people in F&P Districts, who were willing participants in all Anglo-Saxon wars, diverged from the Anglos-Saxon and Pakistani establishment.

Un-noticed by the Pakistani and western establishment, this sentiment burst out into a rebellion. 

8th Feb Election as a Breakdown of 200 Year Old Alliance

On the surface, former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s anti-war #AbsoluteNot rhetoric won a landslide victory in the F&P Districts. In Frontier, it was total capitulation of pro-establishment parties with PTI winning 75% of provincial assembly seats. While political operators of the establishment backed PML.N admitted that PTI swept the Potohar Districts of Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Attock, Jhelum - from which a majority of Pakistan Army’s officer and soldier cadres are drawn – and possibly former Peoples Party Prime Minister Raja Pervez is the only non-PTI candidate to win a legitimate victory.

In 75 years of Pakistan’s independence, the people of F&P districts have largely sided with the Establishment or pro-Establishment parties because their economic and financial interests rested with the fulfillment of the pact of “acting as the front line state of the West in return for their military and non-military aid”. Even the influential Awami National Party of Frontier, which was once considered an anti-establishment party lost its popular appeal among the masses.

Therefore, the anti-establishment and pro Imran Khan results of 8th February elections was so unlikely, that it is the political equivalent of sighting the Haleys Comet. However, the results are not person-centric, as Imran Khan only tapped into a sentiment brought about by a deeper social, demographic, economic and technological evolution over the past twenty years.

The evolution of humanity from an agrarian society to an industrial one created political upheavals and revolutions. Economic, social, and political uncertainty from a shift in power from the feudal to an entrepreneur created fear, anxiety and great change in politics, society and economics. Industrialization re shaped the global order, created new allies, and destroyed old alliances.

In the twenty-first century as humanity leaps from the industrial to the digital age, new “revolutions” such as Brexit are happening, challenging historical alliances and alignments. Pakistan’s February 2024 election was an upheaval, schism and re-alignment of a 200 year alliance between the F&P Districts and the Anglo-Saxon establishment.

Divergent Economics and a Broken Alliance 

The historical alliance cannot be re-set or mend by demands of “do more” by U.S.A or by expectation of financial support by Pakistan. Both the western and Pakistani establishment need to understand un-stoppable demographic, anthropological and technological changes underpinning the 8th of February elections, and not simply a one-person phenomenon.

• 44% of Pakistan’s population is under 35 years

• 22 Mn new voters will be determining the winner of elections till the year, 2050

• 800,000 Pakistanis left for jobs abroad, making their relatives wealthy and less dependent on military or state patronage

• A stunted 4.7% growth rate with population growth at 1.9% creates wealth inequality and dearth of economic opportunity to meet aspirations of the youth.

U.S.A’s national security centric pact with the people of F&P Districts, and by extension Pakistan’s establishment – itself drawn primarily from the F&P Districts - has run its course and does not offer sufficient payoffs for both sides. It barely worked in the post-colonial times of Cold War. In an exponential age of cultural, technological, and economic connectivity, a national security centric alliance no longer inspires nor fulfills the aspiration of the people.

On the other hand, through Belt-&-Road Initiative (BRI) and it’s off-shoot China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China has put forth an alternative vision of Partnering for Peace and Prosperity by integrating with its business supply chain. The Chinese narrative of Development is in sync with the people, then the perceived USA’s Pact for War.

Rejuvenating a Broken Alliance

The February 2024 election defeat of pro-establishment parties was due to discarding of old ideas from a war-centric view of the world which no longer fulfils people’s aspiration for peace or prosperity. Repression to bring the populace back to the old national-security centric paradigm will worsen alienation. 

Fixing the alliance requires mutual understanding and concerted actions from both sides:

What Pakistan Needs To Do >> 

• Focus on human capital development for economic growth. Become a supplier of high skilled talent to the global market rather than supplier of manpower to earn dividends of war.

• The population of the developed countries is falling, and their demographics are skewed towards older, pensionable age citizens. Developed countries require young, technically qualified, and ethically strong human capital to work and support their economies

• Japan’s population is expected to half by 2100, Germany to reduce by 20%

• Pakistan has median age of 22 years and adding an additional 5 Mn youth to the work force every year. If educated and skilled to a global quality standard, Pakistani youth can address this skills gap in technology, healthcare and engineering.

• Pakistan needs to evolve it’s “economic development model” from a playing field for donors to a valuable business opportunity for foreign companies, so there is greater investment to realize the economic potential of Pakistan’s domestic market

• Greater integration into global commerce, environmental sustainability, and tech economy.

What U.S.A Needs To Do >> 

• A seasoned U.S diplomat shared about the current “defensive” state of US diplomacy

• “Washington D.C feels like a capital under-siege from China’s rise, and this has made U.S. policymakers more defensive and assertive”. 

• USA wants a pro-western government in Pakistan versus one that sides with China and that is why Biden Administration’s response to the election irregularities is un-sympathetic. This will only change if the current regime starts to lean towards China.

• U.S tendency would be to act out of fear, as it did in Chile and Indonesia at the height of Cold war with U.S.S.R, and forcefully protect its interest when it stopped socialist governments by encouraging right-wing military takeovers

• A repeat of the Cold War strategy will require significant investment by U.S.A and multilateral institutions to stabilize Pakistan economy and co-opt interest groups. Both attention and quantum of funding needed for such an undertaking may not be available

• For example, supporting Sissi Administration over the last decade required an initial $12.5 Bn I.M.F loan, $10 Bn Saudi-UAE funding and an extra $8.0 Bn in I.M.F loans

• Such a strategy may yield short-term results but will ultimately fail in a digital, inter-connected and inter-dependent global economy, with the added disadvantage of permanently harming perception of U.S.A policies and motivations.

• What is required from U.S.A is to project a vision for a pact for peace and prosperity, of upward economic mobility, just as China did with BRI. An investment plus industrial cooperation plan as U.S.A had with South Korea and West Germany.

A Marshall Plan for the 21st century is the only way to mend the broken alliance between the staunch allies from F&P Districts and the Anglo-Saxon establishment.

People are the Ultimate Source of Power in a State

As the seasoned U.S diplomat opined that the Anglo-Saxon establishment seems constrained in vision and probably funding and stuck in “fear driven cold war thinking”. Hence, this schism with the F&P Districts can become a permanent fissure creating an opening for China to become the partner of prosperity for the people of F&P Districts. 

Will the western establishment and their like-minded allies in Pakistan understand that the rebellion of F&P Districts is a natural and unstoppable outcome of social, economic, and technological trends? Blocking these trends through short-term coercive measures will fail and the west risks losing its influence in Pakistan to China. 

Pakistan’s establishment is the strongest institution because of its popularity and support from among the people of the F&P Districts. If this popular base vanishes or switches to an anti-establishment force that promises to meet people’s aspiration of economic opportunity, then it too risks losing its traditional power and influence.

International and local institutions can prevail in the short run through various means, but in the long run, the power of a state comes from its people. The will of the people prevails, especially if it is driven by their desire to better their lives and that of their children. 

The conundrum in the New Great Game is whether U.S.A changes track and becomes a partner in people’s desire for peace and prosperity or it continues to operate out of the outdated cold war toolkit of war and make ascendency of China in South Asia more imminent.

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